EU warns “massive consequences” if Russia invades Ukraine

Friday, December 17, 2021

Council of the European Union leaders warned Russia yesterday at its last summit of 2021 action against Ukraine would lead to “massive consequences” and a “severe cost in response”, and unanimously approved extending targeted sanctions first imposed by the European Union (EU) in 2014 until July.

A statement published by EU leaders read: “The European Council reiterates its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and pledged amid the build-up of what United States intelligence estimates to be between 95 and 100 thousand Russian soldiers on its western border with Ukraine, which NATO says includes “combat-ready troops, tanks, artillery, armoured units, drones [and] electronic warfare systems” that “[a]ny further military aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences and severe cost in response, including restrictive measures co-ordinated with partners”, namely the US and United Kingdom, according to the BBC and Euronews.

Concerns raised by US officials but denied by Moscow that Russia is preparing a military incursion into Ukraine in early 2022 with about 175 thousand troops was expected to dominate yesterday’s meeting of 27 member states in Brussels, Belgium, according to CNBC. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday “Russia is choosing an aggressive posture vis-à-vis its neighbors. And as the European Union and its G-7 partners have made very clear, further aggressive acts against Ukraine will have massive costs for Russia” after a communiqué from a Liverpool meeting of G7 foreign ministers held last Sunday reaffirmed the group’s “unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”, as reported by The Guardian.

During the summit, the EU extended the deadline on sanctions on Russia that were imposed after its 2014 annexation of Crimea and repeatedly prolonged. Initially set to expire on January 31, the restrictions on trade, financial and military regulations that suspended cooperation talks, restricted Russian officials’ entry to the EU and froze their assets were rolled over by six months to July. EU foreign policy high representative Josep Borrell told TASS reporters ahead of the summit the organisation is “preparing a full set of sanctions” against Russia and expects to reach consensus, but did not name any items in particular, while von der Leyen promised further action “may take the form of a robust scaling-up and expansion of these existing sanctions” and “additional, unprecedented measures with serious consequences for Russia”, according to CNBC; however, Euronews reveals anonymous officials ahead of the summit said leaders would not be expected to specify courses of action, to maintain political leverage against Moscow.

The summit was also attended by the heads of state of the Eastern Partnership countries sans Belarus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine; in a joint declaration of values, the EU reaffirmed its commitment “in its support to the territorial integrity within their internationally recognised borders, independence, and sovereignty of all Eastern partners”, and expressed deep concern over “the continuous destabilisation and violations of the principles of international law in many parts of the Eastern Partnership region that pose a threat to peace, security and stability.”

Although there is criticism sanctions are too soft on President Vladimir Putin’s regime, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told CNBC: “We have intelligence that the sanctions actually hurt. Russia has lost 2% of its GDP over the years due to the sanctions”, but saying the only step toward an EU-Russia summit would be the transfer of Crimea back to Ukraine. As it stands, dialogue is at a standstill: an anonymous EU official said Wednesday talks could only commence “if the Ukraine issue was not on the table”, at a time Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus?da says is “the most dangerous situation in [the] last 30 years” that requires “do[ing] everything that is in our hands in order to prevent the worst scenario, which we cannot unfortunately exclude”, according to Euronews.

EU officials renewed their support today for the four-way Normandy Format of diplomatic dialogue between Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine, according to the BBC.

In the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Naus?da says, the EU should impose “very painful economic sanctions” that threaten the future of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, whose foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday in case of further “escalation” of hostilities in Ukraine “could not come into service”, as reported by The Guardian. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday sanctions should instead be imposed immediately, as after hostilities restrictions like those proposed against Nord Stream 2 and Russian access to the global cooperative the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication “no longer interest anyone”, according to the BBC.

For his part, Putin has denied the country intends to invade Ukraine, and has instead submitted binding guarantees to US Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried during her meeting with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov Wednesday that RT says include an agreement that would prevent NATO’s eastward expansion, including Ukraine, and a pledge to stop deploying weapons in states neighbouring Russia. While backed by China, Western leaders soundly rejected the proposal: Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišj?nis Kari?š said: “It’s up to NATO to decide if, when and how it expands its membership numbers, this can’t be dictated from the outside”, adding, “Putin is afraid that democracy will make its march further eastward.”

In addition to Russia, the summit centred around the “top-priority issue” of COVID-19 in Europe, the new Omicron variant and the anti-COVID vaccine rollout, as well as the harmonisation of travel restrictions by member states, rising inflation and debates on migration and soaring gas prices across much of the continent, according to Euronews. In October, Russian energy giant Gazprom allegedly offered Moldova a three-fold price hike on its 30-year gas contract that von der Leyen said Wednesday was a “blatant attempt to intimidate Moldova’s reformist government”, according to CNBC.

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